Market Context
Wall Street extended its Iran-driven selloff Thursday. The Dow shed 784 points (-1.61%) to close at 47,954.74, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.57% to 6,830.71 and the Nasdaq fell 0.26% to 22,748.99. Small caps bore the brunt — the Russell 2000 slid 1.9%. WTI crude surged past $81/barrel, its highest level since July 2024, after Iran struck an American-owned oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. Energy was the lone sector in the green (+0.58%). Industrials (-2.2%) and Materials (-2.1%) led losses as recession fears mounted.
Options flow across our full filtered universe was nearly balanced by premium — $29.1M in puts vs. $26.9M in calls — but the put concentration in single names told a more decisive story.
Signal of the Day: MELI — $21.5M Deeply ITM Put Sweep
MercadoLibre was the single most active flow name Thursday by a wide margin.
Two strikes. One direction. No ambiguity.
$2,200 puts expiring March 20: $21.1M in premium, Vol/OI ratio of 24x — meaning 24 times more contracts traded today than existed going in. MELI was trading around $1,781 at the time of the fills.
$2,360 puts expiring March 20: $405K additional put premium, Vol/OI effectively infinite (no prior open interest) — entirely fresh positioning.
Combined: $21.5M in bearish premium on a single name, expiring in two weeks.
Important context: Both strikes ($2,200 and $2,360) are deeply in-the-money puts — sitting 23.5% and 32% above MELI's current stock price. Deeply ITM puts carry high intrinsic value and behave more like short stock than speculative bets. This type of flow is often used for downside protection on an existing long position, as a synthetic short, or as a delta-replacement strategy. Dark pool activity on MELI confirmed during the same session.
Whatever the intent — this is the largest single-name directional put flow we've observed this week.
Corroborated Signals (Flow + Dark Pool)
The following tickers showed unusual options flow and dark pool activity in the same session — a higher-conviction setup than flow alone.
COIN — Bullish | $698K calls
$212.5 calls expiring March 13, Vol/OI 5.9x across two fills
Dark pool: ~$203K block at $205.79
COIN closed at $205.83; the $212.5 strike is slightly OTM with 8 days to expiry — short-dated directional bet on upside.
BKNG — Bullish | $622K calls (2027)
$4,850 calls expiring March 2027 — long-dated conviction positioning across 10 separate fills
Dark pool: $864K block at $4,625 — largest single-stock dark pool print of the session
Airlines were crushed Thursday on oil fears; BKNG call flow diverging bullish suggests longer-term positioning, not a reaction to the day's tape.
ASML — Bullish | $2.9M in calls across multiple strikes
$400C Mar 20 ($1.16M combined across 6 fills, Vol/OI 8–18x), $330C Mar 20 ($207K, Vol/OI 11.6x), $430C Mar 20 ($187K, Vol/OI 15.2x), $1,390C Apr 2 ($362K, Vol/OI 126x), $300C Mar 20 ($851K combined).
Important: Most strikes ($300–$430) are deeply in-the-money relative to ASML's ~$1,368 close. The exception is the $1,390 call (Apr 2), which is slightly OTM with a 126x Vol/OI ratio — the single highest ratio in Thursday's flow.
Deeply ITM calls behave like long stock exposure — this is not lottery-ticket buying, it's leveraged directional positioning into a name that closed down 2.1% on the day.
CRWV — Bearish | $1.17M puts
$95 puts expiring July 17: $1.17M in total premium across 11 fills, Vol/OI ranging from 5.4x to 9.2x.
Dark pool: $165K block at $75.06
OI changes confirmed: CRWV showed up in prior-day OI data, meaning existing bearish positioning is being held.
The $95 strike sits roughly 27% above CRWV's ~$75 stock price — deeply ITM puts, consistent with either protection on a long or a synthetic short.
ZS — Bearish | $138K puts
$155 puts expiring April 2, Vol/OI 8.3x
Dark pool: $212K block at $162
ZS earnings approaching; flow suggests downside hedging ahead of the print.
XOM — Bearish | $399K puts
$140 puts expiring October 16, Vol/OI 7x
Dark pool: $240K block at $150.50
Notable: Energy was the only green sector Thursday, yet someone placed a 7-month bearish hedge on the sector's largest name. The $140 strike is well below XOM's $150 close — long-dated OTM protection, not a directional day trade.
MRVL — Bullish | $62K calls + $1.57M dark pool
$85C Apr 10, Vol/OI 9.2x (the only MRVL flow row clearing our Vol/OI >3x filter).
Dark pool: 9 separate blocks totaling $1.57M at ~$86.72–$86.95.
When dark pool premium is 25x the options premium on the same name, the real position is likely in shares — the options may be signaling direction while the bulk of the bet is in stock.
AAPL — Bullish | $184K calls (Triple Confirmed)
$275C Apr 2, Vol/OI 3.5x — OTM call with meaningful premium.
Dark pool: Two prints totaling $387K at $260.22–$260.25.
OI changes: AAPL confirmed in prior-day OI data — prior positioning being held.
Three independent data sources pointing the same direction on the same name.
Notable Flow — Individual Names
KHC (Kraft Heinz) — $433K calls, Vol/OI 87x: Defensive consumer name seeing the most aggressive Vol/OI ratio in Thursday's flow. $24 strike expiring March 13 — short-dated and near-the-money at a $24.24 close. 87x means virtually every contract traded today was new. No dark pool corroboration, but the ratio alone warrants attention.
CIEN (Ciena) — $200K calls across two strikes: $310C Oct 16 ($148K, Vol/OI 21x) and $325C Apr 2 ($52K, Vol/OI 16.5x). CIEN was the worst performer in the S&P 500 Thursday, down over 16% after issuing a disappointing 2026 outlook despite strong Q4 cloud revenue (+76%). The call flow — particularly the October strike — suggests someone is betting the selloff is overdone on a longer time horizon.
VLO (Valero) — $363K puts: $200P Mar 20 ($304K, Vol/OI 8.4x) and $240P Jan 2027 ($59K) — two separate bearish structures on the same name. Energy sector was green Thursday; Valero was up on the day. Yet put flow hit $363K combined. This is a hedge against the energy rally, not a bet against the day's move.
Sector Breakdown (Full Universe)
Sector | Total Premium | Direction |
Consumer Cyclical | $25.9M | 🔴 Bearish (MELI puts dominant) |
Technology | $22.7M | 🟢 Mixed (ASML, AAPL calls; CRWV puts) |
Communication Services | $1.9M | Mixed |
Energy | $1.4M | 🔴 Bearish hedges (XOM, VLO puts) |
Financial Services | $1.2M | 🔴 Bearish (CRCL puts) |
Healthcare | $1.2M | Mixed |
Industrials | $0.9M | 🟢 Bullish (HEI, ACM calls) |
Consumer Defensive | $0.5M | 🟢 Bullish (KHC calls) |
Basic Materials | $0.2M | Mixed |
Overall: $29.1M puts vs. $26.9M calls — closer to balanced than the raw concentration in MELI suggests. Strip MELI out and the rest of the tape is modestly call-heavy.
Dark Pool Summary
Top institutional blocks (stocks only, ETFs excluded):
Ticker | Total Shares | Total Premium | Sector |
NVDA | 17,595 | $3.21M | Technology |
AMD | 12,804 | $2.56M | Technology |
INTC | 39,001 | $1.79M | Technology |
MRVL | 18,048 | $1.57M | Technology |
RDDT | 10,000 | $1.44M | Comm. Services |
ORCL | 6,684 | $1.05M | Technology |
CRDO | 8,010 | $915K | Technology |
AVAV | 4,000 | $879K | Industrials |
BKNG | 187 | $864K | Consumer Cyclical |
Note: Technology dominated dark pool activity Thursday — institutional accumulation in semis and large-cap tech while indices declined.
The Takeaway
Thursday's flow told a split story. The headline was MELI's $21.5M deeply ITM put sweep — the largest single-name put flow of the week. Geopolitical macro (Iran, WTI above $81, Strait of Hormuz fears) pushed energy hedges onto XOM and VLO even as the sector rallied.
But underneath that, dark pool data showed coordinated accumulation in technology — NVDA ($3.2M), AMD ($2.6M), INTC ($1.8M), MRVL ($1.6M), ORCL ($1M), CRDO ($915K) all saw institutional blocks on the same session. ASML's call flow hit $2.9M into a down day. AAPL was triple-confirmed bullish across three data sources.
The interpretation: institutions appear to be hedging macro risk while simultaneously accumulating tech on weakness. These are not contradictory positions — they reflect a bifurcated view where the geopolitical risk is real but the structural tech trade isn't over.
Watch MELI into March 20 expiration. Watch AAPL, ASML, and the tech dark pool accumulation for follow-through.
AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC (d/b/a FinPub) for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Options trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, which may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.