Flow Recap | March 12, 2026

Thursday was a bloodbath. The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to 6,672.62 — its lowest close since mid-December — as oil prices exploded higher after Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the Strait of Hormuz closure should continue. The Dow shed 739 points (-1.56%), the Nasdaq fell 1.78%, and the Russell 2000 took the worst hit at -2.12%.

WTI crude surged 9.72% to settle at $95.73 a barrel. Brent topped $100 for the first time, closing at $100.46. The IEA's record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release — the largest in its history — barely dented the rally. The VIX spiked 12.63% to 27.29, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 6.5 basis points to 4.273% as traders priced in an oil-driven inflation risk. Gold pulled back 1.92% to $5,079.90 despite the risk-off mood.

After the bell, Adobe beat Q1 estimates — EPS of $6.06 vs. $5.88 expected, revenue of $6.4B vs. $6.28B — but the stock dropped 5% after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he would step down after 18 years. Private credit stress continued to dominate financial headlines as Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund at 5% of shares after investors sought to redeem nearly 11%. Blackstone's BCRED also disclosed heightened withdrawals, and JPMorgan reportedly began restricting lending to software companies in its private credit funds.

Total flow scanned: 250 signals | Bullish: $21.60M (133) | Bearish: $82.61M (117) | Net: BEARISH by $61.02M

This was the most lopsided bearish session we've tracked since launch. For every dollar of bullish flow, there were nearly four dollars of bearish positioning. The protection buying was concentrated and urgent.

Someone loaded 5,010 contracts of $230 puts expiring March 20 — just eight days out. That's a bet on a 28% drop from Thursday's close near $179. Volume-to-open-interest hit 368.7x with implied volatility at 102.8%. This is not a hedge — it's a directional conviction bet, and the timing coincides with a class action lawsuit announcement filed against Snowflake on the same day. This was the single largest position in Thursday's flow by a wide margin.

Microsoft saw $24.61M in bearish flow versus just $0.26M bullish. The positioning was concentrated in $510 puts ($19.31M, 1,790 contracts) and $520 puts ($5.19M, 440 contracts), both expiring May 15. These are deep in-the-money puts with V/OI around 19x — more consistent with institutional hedging than speculative bets. With the private credit crunch hitting software-exposed funds hardest, someone is protecting a large MSFT position.

Blackstone took a $8.40M hit in $130 puts expiring March 20, 3,000 contracts at V/OI 5.8x with 126% IV. Blackstone is at the center of the private credit storm — its BCRED fund disclosed heightened withdrawals earlier this month. This flow is a direct bet that the private credit unwind has further to go.

The headline position is $7.66M in $250 puts expiring March 20 — 1,465 contracts at 11.9x V/OI. That's a near-term protection trade on a stock trading around $212. But buried underneath is $0.72M in $210 call LEAPS expiring December 2026 — 198 contracts accumulated across 8 fills. Near-term fear, long-term accumulation.

Marvell was the standout bullish play. Every dollar was calls, split between $120C June 2027 LEAPS ($1.59M, 1,080 contracts) and $120C December 2026 ($0.85M, 990 contracts) — 10 total fills across the two strikes with zero bearish flow. Somebody is building a long-term position through the volatility.

All downside, no hedging: $92 puts ($1.70M, 860 contracts) and $98 puts ($0.64M, 260 contracts), both expiring March 20. V/OI ratios of 12-13x suggest conviction rather than hedging on a stock trading around $75. These are aggressive out-of-the-money puts.

Core Scientific saw $1.84M in $7 calls expiring April 17 — 2,000 contracts across 4 fills. Bitcoin is holding around $70K, and this looks like a leveraged bet on further crypto upside through a miner with high beta to BTC.

Date: March 13, 2026 | 250 prints scanned (194 stocks after ETF exclusion)

The headline print is First BanCorp (FBP) — a single block of 666,160 shares worth $13.88M at $20.84. That's a massive, single-print institutional move in a Puerto Rico-based bank. NVDA dominated print count with 33 separate trades totaling $12.89M.

Signal convergence: MSFT appears in both options flow (heavily bearish) and dark pool. MU shows in both flow (pre-earnings bullish) and dark pool (14 prints, $2.27M) — two different channels of institutional activity ahead of its March 18 earnings.

Date: March 13, 2026 | 150 rows scanned | 71 multi-day builds (3+ days)

The OI landscape is screaming two themes: gold positioning and tail-risk hedging.

Gold explosion: GLD $495 calls added 165,414 contracts of open interest over 3 days, backed by $66.91M in premium. Despite gold pulling back on Thursday, someone is building a massive position targeting $495+ by April expiration. Gold at $5,080 with this kind of call accumulation suggests institutional expectation of further safe-haven flows.

VIX hedging ladder: The volatility complex is building a multi-tier hedge stack — $55C (6 days, +52K OI), $70C (8 days, +57K OI), $100C (4 days, +47K OI). Someone is paying for increasingly unlikely outcomes. The $100C position is pure tail-risk insurance — a bet that something truly breaks. Meanwhile, VIX $19P has been building for 20 straight days (+74K OI), suggesting someone also has a view that volatility eventually normalizes.

Credit hedging continues: HYG $79P added 45,842 OI over 3 days ($7.23M premium) and $78P added 24,057 OI over 5 days. Credit protection is accumulating, consistent with the Morgan Stanley / Blackstone private credit stress headlines.

Small cap protection: IWM $236P and $230P both have 6-day OI builds (+36K and +28K respectively). The Russell 2000 is taking the worst of the sell-off, and the hedging activity reflects that.

Notable non-hedge plays: PINS calls ($21C and $22C April) have been building for 8-15 days (+29K and +32K OI). SMCI $32C and $34C are building over 3-5 days with +26K each. MSTR $142C has been building for 14 days with nearly 10K OI — crypto conviction through the chaos.

Friday, March 13: January PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) drops this morning. Goldman has raised its PCE forecast citing higher oil. This is the number that sets the tone for next week's Fed meeting.

Next week: Fed rate decision (widely expected to hold). MU earnings Tuesday after close. CCL earnings Thursday.

Thematic watch: The private credit unwind (Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Blue Owl, JPMorgan pullback) is the slow-burn story that options flow is pricing in aggressively. BX puts, MSFT puts (software exposure in private credit portfolios), and credit ETF hedging (HYG puts) are all telling the same story from different angles.

Oil above $100: As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, oil stays elevated. The IEA's emergency release failed to contain prices. Next catalyst: any diplomatic signal, or further escalation.

AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC (d/b/a AhamFlow) for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to transact. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. All data sourced from publicly available options flow, dark pool, and open interest feeds. Past flow activity does not predict future price movements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.