Flow Recap | March 13, 2026

On Thursday, the flow was 4:1 bearish. On Friday, it flipped. The smart money reversed course on PCE day, and the signal was unmistakable.

Markets finished lower — the S&P 500 shed 0.61% to 6,632.19, its lowest close of 2026 and the first three-week losing streak in about a year. The Dow dropped 119 points (-0.26%) to 46,558.47. The Nasdaq fell 0.93% to 22,105.36. All three benchmarks are now at their lowest since November. But beneath the red tape, Friday's options flow told a different story.

The January PCE report landed Friday morning: headline at +0.3% MoM (+2.8% YoY, slightly below the 2.9% estimate) and core at +0.4% MoM (+3.1% YoY, the hottest since Spring 2024). Both in-line. No upside surprise. But core at 3.1% is moving the wrong direction for the Fed, which targets 2%. Critically, these January numbers predate the Iran war and oil surge entirely — the February and March prints will be the real test. The Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday next week and is widely expected to hold.

WTI crude rose another 3.11% to settle at $98.71, marching closer to triple digits. The 10-year yield ended at 4.28%. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the largest wave of US strikes against Iranian targets to date, eliminating any near-term hope of de-escalation. Adobe cratered 7.6% after CEO Shantanu Narayen's departure announcement overshadowed a solid earnings beat ($6.06 EPS vs. $5.88 est.).

Total flow scanned: 250 signals | Bullish: $25.64M (182) | Bearish: $12.72M (68) | Net: BULLISH by $12.92M

Thursday was $82.6M bearish, 4:1 puts over calls. Friday flipped to $25.6M bullish, 2:1 calls over puts. That's a $74M sentiment swing in 24 hours — on a day the market closed lower. When the flow is buying and the price is falling, that's accumulation.

Meta was the day's most-traded name with 29 fills. The structure tells the story: $4.78M bullish versus $2.05M bearish. The bullish side is dominated by deep in-the-money $5 calls — essentially synthetic stock positions with delta approaching 1.0 — spread across 2026, 2027, and 2028 expirations totaling $2.25M. These are how institutions take long exposure without buying shares outright. On top: $560C November ($1.10M) and $600C October ($0.22M) for upside. The bearish side is short-dated $630P/$642P expiring March 27 — near-term hedging around the same long position. This isn't indecision. It's someone building a levered long while protecting the entry.

Same playbook as META. Tesla saw $3.22M bullish versus $0.53M bearish across 29 fills. The lead position: $5C April ($1.86M, 4 fills, V/OI 25.0x) — another deep ITM synthetic long with delta near 1.0. Then $450C January 2027 LEAPS ($0.35M, 5 fills), $420C August ($0.17M), and scattered calls across multiple expirations out to December 2028. The small bearish side is longer-dated puts ($210P Dec 2028, $450P May). Someone is positioning for a recovery while acknowledging long-term tail risk.

AST SpaceMobile took the biggest single bearish hit of the day: $95P April 17, 2,000 contracts, 4.2x V/OI, 97.6% IV. At $3.14M, this is a conviction put on a stock that has seen volatile swings around satellite deployment milestones. One fill, one opinion.

SanDisk (ticker SNDK, the Western Digital storage unit trading as a separate common stock listing) saw $1.89M flow into $1020C June 2027 LEAPS across 17 separate fills. That's not a single block — that's patient accumulation over the entire session. The stock trades around $628. Add $600C April ($0.28M) and $680C April ($0.32M), and the picture is clear: someone expects a significant re-rating in storage over the next 12-18 months, likely tied to AI data center demand for high-capacity storage.

This is the most aggressive contrarian signal of the day. United Airlines saw $1.70M flow into $101C expiring April 2 — 12,887 contracts, V/OI 239.9x, with zero bearish flow. An airline call bet with oil at $98.71 a barrel. Either this trader knows something about fuel hedging, government relief, or a de-escalation timeline — or they're fading the panic.

Micron's bullish streak continues. $1.68M bullish versus just $0.09M bearish across 16 fills. The positioning is spreading across multiple expirations: $260C May ($0.52M, 3 fills), $390C May ($0.35M), $600C September ($0.19M), $450C September ($0.16M), plus shorter-dated $410C/$430C weeklies. This is the third consecutive session of overwhelmingly bullish MU flow ahead of Tuesday's earnings. Dark pool confirms: 9 prints, $2.62M on Friday.

Alibaba reports Wednesday, March 19. Friday's flow: $55C April ($0.81M), deep ITM, 100 contracts at V/OI infinite (new opening). Plus $165C July ($0.05M) for upside. All bullish, no hedging. Someone is positioning clean into the print.

Date: March 13, 2026 | 250 prints scanned (181 stocks after ETF exclusion)

NVDA led again with 28 prints totaling $7.78M — consistent with steady institutional accumulation through the sell-off. ORCL continues its multi-week dark pool presence (11 prints, $3.02M) following the post-earnings breakout.

Signal convergence: MU appears in both bullish options flow ($1.68M) AND dark pool (9 prints, $2.62M) for the second consecutive day ahead of Tuesday's earnings. When two independent channels of institutional activity agree, that's a high-conviction signal. TSLA also converges — bullish flow ($3.22M) and dark pool ($1.18M, 7 prints). IBIT seeing $1.62M across 5 dark pool prints as Bitcoin holds above $70K.

Date: March 13, 2026 | 150 rows scanned | 71 multi-day builds (3+ days)

The OI landscape reinforces the same themes we flagged yesterday, with positions continuing to build:

🐳 WHALE ALERT — Gold conviction intensifying: GLD $495C April added +165,414 OI over 3 days, backed by $66.91M in premium. GLD $515C April added another +165,007 OI over 2 days with $33.83M in premium. Combined, that's over 330,000 contracts and $100M+ in premium flowing into gold calls in under a week. This is one of the largest single-name OI builds we've seen across any asset. Gold pulled back this week, but institutional positioning is pointing overwhelmingly to a resumption higher.

VIX ladder holding: The multi-tier hedge structure remains intact — $55C (6 days, +52K OI), $70C (8 days, +57K OI), $100C (4 days, +47K OI) all building. The $19P has been accumulating for 20 consecutive days (+74K OI). Institutions are simultaneously hedging for tail risk AND positioning for an eventual vol normalization.

KRE risk reversal — private credit stress barometer: Regional bank ETF (KRE) saw massive simultaneous activity — $67C June (+56K OI, $15.74M), $58P June (+56K OI, $13.65M), $40P June (+56K OI, $2.69M). This looks like a risk-reversal structure: someone is buying calls AND buying puts on regional banks, positioning for a large move in either direction. The Morgan Stanley / Blackstone / Blue Owl private credit stress is the catalyst.

Credit hedging persists: HYG $79P (3 days, +46K OI, $7.23M) and $78P (5 days, +24K OI, $2.87M). IWM $236P (6 days, +36K OI, $11.52M) and $230P (6 days, +28K OI). Institutional protection buying hasn't let up.

SMCI accumulation: $32C and $34C weekly calls both building 3-5 days with +26K OI each ($2.72M and $1.17M in premium). Super Micro Computer is seeing sustained bullish OI accumulation through the sell-off.

PINS quiet build: $21C April (15 days, +29K OI, $3.11M) and $22C April (8 days, +32K OI, $1.68M). Pinterest has been building for over two weeks with no headline catalyst.

Monday, March 16: NVIDIA GTC conference begins — the biggest AI catalyst event on the calendar. Watch for new chip announcements and customer commitments. NVDA flow and dark pool have been quietly accumulating all week.

Tuesday-Wednesday, March 17-18: FOMC meeting and rate decision. Expected to hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement and Powell's press conference will matter more than the decision — markets want to hear how the Fed views the Iran-driven oil surge and whether the dot plot signals any shift in the rate path. With core PCE at 3.1% and oil approaching $100, the "higher for longer" narrative has teeth.

Tuesday AH: MU earnings. The flow trail says bullish — three consecutive days. We'll see if the market agrees.

Wednesday pre-market: BABA earnings. Clean bullish positioning ahead of the print.

Broader theme: Friday's flow reversal — from $82.6M bearish to $25.6M bullish in 24 hours — suggests that the fast money's panic trade is done and the accumulation phase is starting. The deep ITM synthetic longs in META and TSLA are how institutional players build positions quietly. They don't buy shares on red days; they buy delta through the options chain. The GLD whale build (+330K OI, $100M+ premium) suggests institutions are also hedging their equity accumulation with gold — a classic "buy the dip but hedge the macro" playbook.

AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC (d/b/a AhamFlow) for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to transact. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. All data sourced from publicly available options flow, dark pool, and open interest feeds. Past flow activity does not predict future price movements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.