Flow Recap | March 3, 2026

Welcome to AhamFlow — a weekly options flow analysis newsletter. Each week, I break down notable institutional activity in the options market to help you understand what large players are positioning for.

Tuesday's session was dominated by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its fourth day. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 2.5% before recovering to close down 0.94% at 6,816.63. The Dow was down over 1,200 points at its worst before ending -403 points. The Nasdaq lost 1.02%.

The VIX spiked above 25 intraday — its highest level since early February — as traders scrambled for protection. WTI crude surged over 8% to approximately $77 on reports that Iran had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Markets partially recovered after President Trump pledged that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the strait.

Despite the fear-driven session, today's unusual flow data showed 161 bullish signals versus 89 bearish — with total bullish premium of approximately $29M vs $11.2M bearish. That said, much of the bullish flow came from deep in-the-money LEAPS and long-dated accumulation, while bearish flow was concentrated in near-term hedging.

The following signals were identified from unusual options activity data, filtered for elevated volume-to-open-interest ratios and significant premium. This is observational analysis of publicly available flow data — not a recommendation to trade any of these names.

CRCL (Circle Internet) — Multiple Strikes, Dec 2028 expiry

Approximately $6.3M in total call premium across 30 separate fills in the final 5 minutes of trading. Strikes ranged from $65 to $100, with the heaviest concentration in the $65 calls. The $65C showed Vol/OI reaching 4.2x, indicating largely new positioning. The stock was trading near $99.

Additionally, the $75 calls for May 2026 saw $3.2M in premium across 4 fills. This level of sustained, multi-strike accumulation in a single session on a financial infrastructure company is notable.

TSLA $5 Calls — Dec 2027 expiry (Deep ITM LEAPS)

Two fills totaling approximately $5.8M in premium (100 + 50 contracts). At a $5 strike with TSLA trading near $392, these are deep in-the-money calls functioning as stock replacement positions — essentially a leveraged long with minimal time premium. Vol/OI was minimal relative to the large open interest (34,771), suggesting this was adding to an existing large position.

LITE $600–$750 Calls — June 2026 expiry

Approximately $2.1M in total call premium across 3 fills at the $600 and $750 strikes, all at 3:59 PM. With the stock at approximately $693, the $600 calls were in-the-money while the $750 calls represented an optimistic upside target. LITE (Lumentum) operates in the optical and photonics space.

SNDK $525 Calls — March 13 expiry

Approximately $456K across 3 fills with Vol/OI ratios of 42x to 58x — indicating almost entirely new positioning. Sandisk has been one of the best-performing S&P 500 names in 2026, having already doubled on memory chip shortage tailwinds from the AI buildout.

RIVN $15 Calls — March 27 expiry

Approximately $220K across 2 fills with Vol/OI at 17.3x. At-the-money call buying on Rivian with the stock at $15.13.

TSLA $485 Puts — March 20 expiry

Approximately $1.2M across 4 separate fills, all with Vol/OI of 6.0x. At a $485 strike with TSLA trading near $392, these are significantly out-of-the-money puts with just 16 days to expiry — an aggressive near-term bearish position. Note: TSLA also saw $220K in $380 August puts and $147K in $450 March 27 puts, bringing total TSLA put premium to approximately $1.57M.

SATS $140–$160 Puts — July/September 2026 expiry

Approximately $591K in total put premium. The $160 September puts showed Vol/OI of 10–12x, indicating new positioning. EchoStar (SATS) was trading at $117 — these puts are out-of-the-money with a multi-month horizon.

RBLX $67 Puts — April 2 expiry

Approximately $402K in premium. With RBLX at $66.93, this was at-the-money put buying with 29 days to expiry.

GOOGL $300 Puts — March 20 expiry

$328K in premium with Google trading near $304. Near-the-money put buying, though Google also saw significant bullish flow: approximately $1.5M+ in call premium across multiple strikes and expirations ($295C, $310C, $340C, $400C).

Note: Unusual options activity can reflect hedging, spread trades, or institutional strategies that may not be directionally motivated. A single flow signal should not be interpreted as a definitive indicator of future price movement.

Several names reporting this week showed notable pre-earnings positioning:

CrowdStrike (CRWD): Bullish premium led at approximately $349K (calls at $370–$400 strikes, long-dated Dec 2028) vs $172K in puts ($390–$440, also long-dated). Both sides are taking positions via LEAPS rather than weekly options, suggesting thesis-driven trades rather than binary earnings bets.

Alibaba (BABA): $239K in March 20 $147 puts across 2 fills. With the stock near $147, this is at-the-money put buying ahead of earnings — a hedging or bearish lean.

GitLab (GTLB): $164K in calls across 2 fills ($25C March 13 and $30C June 2026). Bullish positioning ahead of the print.

Despite WTI crude surging 8% to $77 on Strait of Hormuz closure fears, energy options flow in today's data was relatively thin:

The absence of heavy directional energy flow, despite the crude rally, could suggest that the large institutional moves in oil happened outside of single-name options (via futures, ETFs, or earlier in the session before the flow data captured).

The VIX spiked above 25 intraday — a significant jump from Friday's close near 19.86. It traded in a range of approximately 20.37 to 25.24 throughout the session. Elevated VIX means richer option premiums across the board, which creates a different environment for both premium buyers and sellers.

For context: the VIX above 25 has historically corresponded with periods of acute uncertainty, though far below panic levels (40+). The geopolitical catalyst makes this spike event-driven rather than structural, which means it could fade quickly if tensions de-escalate — or persist if the Strait of Hormuz situation worsens.

Key events still ahead this week:

After Friday's hot PPI and now geopolitical energy disruption, the labor market data on Friday becomes even more critical. Strong jobs + hot inflation + rising oil = rate cuts moving further out.

AhamFlow analyzes publicly available options flow data to identify notable institutional positioning. The goal is to provide context on what large market participants appear to be doing — not to tell you what to do.

Daily flow alerts are shared on X/Twitter at @AhamFlow.

— The AhamFlow Team

DISCLAIMER: AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Options trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, which may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.