Flow Recap | March 9, 2026

Welcome to AhamFlow — a daily options flow analysis newsletter. Each day, I break down notable institutional activity in the options market to help you understand what large players are positioning for.

Monday delivered one of the most dramatic intraday reversals of 2026. The Dow plunged 886 points at its low before closing up 239 points (+0.50%) at 47,740.80. The S&P 500 recovered from a 1.5% decline to finish up 0.83% at 6,795.99. The Nasdaq flipped from -1.5% to +1.38%, closing at 22,695.95.

The catalyst for the reversal: President Trump told CBS that the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much." Oil — which had briefly surged near $120 per barrel overnight — crashed from its $94.77 settlement to approximately $86.47 by 4 PM ET. Brent crude settled at $98.96 before dropping similarly in post-settlement trading.

The VIX fell 14% to 25.50, retreating from Friday's close near 29.26 but still well above normal levels. Despite the late rally, all three major averages remain negative for the year.

The following signals were identified from unusual options activity data, filtered for elevated volume-to-open-interest ratios and significant premium. This is observational analysis of publicly available flow data — not a recommendation to trade any of these names.

Monday's flow showed 176 bullish signals versus 74 bearish, with total bullish premium of approximately $25.1M vs $13.6M bearish. The bullish lean was the widest imbalance we've seen in two weeks.

META (Meta Platforms) — Multiple Strikes, $4.7M total

The largest bullish flow of the day. Approximately $4.2M in call premium across 16 fills spanning multiple strikes and expirations: $560C November ($2M across 3 fills), $725C June ($738K across 5 fills), $640C June/December ($641K across 2 fills), and others. Bearish flow was modest at $509K in $640 March puts and $780 June 2027 puts. With META near $647, the positioning is broadly optimistic across time frames.

MU (Micron) — 24 fills, $3.9M total, $3.7M bullish

Micron continues to attract heavy pre-earnings flow with the print scheduled for March 18. The standout was $893K in $700C December 2028 LEAPS — an extremely optimistic long-term bet at nearly 2x the current stock price of $387. Additional bullish flow at $500C ($473K), $900C ($230K), and $250-$340C across near-term expirations. Bearish flow was minimal at $212K.

NVDA (Nvidia) — 17 fills, $3.2M total, $2.6M bullish

The highlight was $1.2M in $180C September calls — a near-the-money position with NVDA at $182. Additional bullish LEAPS at $360C December 2028 ($174K), $120C January 2027 ($145K), and $190C June ($187K). Bearish flow of $665K was spread across multiple put strikes, including $185P March ($343K) and long-dated $145-$155P January 2028 puts ($231K).

ASML — $1450C March 27, 34.8x Vol/OI

$1.3M in a single fill with a massive 34.8x Vol/OI ratio — signaling almost entirely new positioning. With ASML at $1,357, this call is slightly out-of-the-money with just 17 days to expiry. An aggressive near-term bullish bet on the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker. Total ASML bullish flow was $1.5M across 3 fills.

CVX (Chevron) — $165C June 2026, $718K total

Three fills totaling $718K in call premium, all at the same strike and expiry. With CVX at $189, these are deep in-the-money calls. Oil stocks continue to attract bullish positioning as the energy supply disruption narrative persists.

AMD — 8 fills, $1M total, $948K bullish

The largest single fill was $392K in deep ITM $45C March calls. Additional bullish positioning at $190C March/December. AMD has lagged NVDA in the AI hardware trade and may be seen as a catch-up opportunity.

AHCO (AdaptHealth) — $12.50P March 20, $3.8M across 2 fills

The single largest bearish position of the day. Two fills of $1.9M each in $12.50 puts with the stock trading at just $9.68. These are deep in-the-money puts on a healthcare-at-home company — this is conviction-level bearish positioning or a significant hedge on an existing long position.

OWL (Blue Owl Capital) — $27P January 2027, $1.3M

$1.3M in a single fill of long-dated puts with the stock at $9.82. The $27 strike is deep in-the-money. Blue Owl Capital is an alternative asset manager that has been under pressure amid the broader private credit concerns (recall BlackRock's fund withdrawal caps from last week).

AMZN (Amazon) — $235–$280P January 2027, $1.3M bearish

Two fills totaling $1.27M in long-dated puts. At $235–$280 strikes with AMZN near $213, the $280 puts are deep in-the-money while the $235 puts are slightly out-of-the-money. Bullish flow was minimal at $123K.

TSLA (Tesla) — 15 fills, $1.2M total, $1.1M bearish

Put buying dominated across 13 bearish fills spanning $215–$680 strikes at expirations from March to December. The most notable: $660P and $650P December 2026 ($235K combined), and $475P April ($329K across 4 fills). Despite Trump's "war is very complete" comments helping the market rally, TSLA bears were actively building positions.

COF (Capital One) — $195P September 2026, $499K

A single fill with 2.4x Vol/OI on the financial services company. With the stock at $185, this is a near-the-money put with a 6-month horizon.

Note: Unusual options activity can reflect hedging, spread trades, or institutional strategies that may not be directionally motivated. A single flow signal should not be interpreted as a definitive indicator of future price movement.

Micron (MU) — reports March 18: The most heavily positioned name in today's flow. $3.7M in bullish premium across strikes from $250 to $900 across multiple expirations. The $700C and $900C December 2028 LEAPS ($1.1M combined) represent extreme long-term optimism on the memory chip cycle.

Oracle (ORCL) — reports this week: $297K in all-bullish flow across $150C and $190C. Smaller than last week's $1.3M accumulation but still directionally consistent — no bearish positioning visible.

Tuesday's pre-market dark pool data showed concentrated institutional activity:

PAA (Plains All American Pipeline): $6.2M in a single block of 286,229 shares at $21.66. An energy infrastructure MLP — directly benefiting from elevated oil prices and pipeline demand.

SNDK (Sandisk): $3.7M across 9 prints at $589-$595 per share. Despite heavy put buying in the options flow, dark pool buying continues.

NVDA: $3.9M across 18 prints (21,634 shares) in a tight range of $181.70-$181.99. Systematic accumulation during pre-market hours.

TSLA: $3.2M across 14 prints (8,095 shares) at approximately $400. Despite the bearish options flow, dark pool activity shows buying interest.

MU: $3.3M across 13 prints (8,502 shares) at $388-$391. Pre-earnings accumulation continues across channels.

HIMS: $1.1M across 4 prints (48,412 shares) at approximately $23.25. Down from last week's $7.8M in dark pool activity but still notable.

Key hedging signals (multi-day OI increases):

NVDA $160P April 2 — 17 consecutive days of OI increases ($17M in prior premium). This is the most persistent single-name put OI buildup in the current dataset.

SPY $660P March 13 — 8 days of OI building ($110M in prior premium). IWM $230P March 17 — 3 days. SPY $650P March 13 — 2 days ($39M). Institutions are layering index hedges across near-term expirations.

Bullish OI accumulation: GDX (Gold Miners) $90C May — 4 days of OI building ($48M in prior premium). Gold and gold miners benefiting from safe-haven flows. XLF $52C March/September — 2-13 days of OI increases. AAL $13C April — 7 days.

Volatility positioning: VIX $60C April — 2 days of OI increases ($4.7M). Institutions buying upside VIX calls as a tail-risk hedge.

Tuesday's CPI release is the week's most consequential data point. After the hot PPI two weeks ago and Friday's -92K jobs shock, the market is caught between two narratives: stagflation (which would require the Fed to stay hawkish) or economic weakness (which would support rate cuts).

An upside CPI surprise would likely accelerate the sell-off and push VIX higher. A downside miss could trigger a sharp short-covering rally — potentially the catalyst for a broader relief move.

AhamFlow analyzes publicly available options flow data to identify notable institutional positioning. The goal is to provide context on what large market participants appear to be doing — not to tell you what to do.

Daily flow alerts are shared on X/Twitter at @AhamFlow.

— The AhamFlow Team

DISCLAIMER: AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC (d/b/a FinPub) for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Options trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, which may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.