Week in Flow | March 2-6, 2026

Welcome to AhamFlow — a weekly options flow analysis newsletter. Each week, I break down notable institutional activity in the options market to help you understand what large players are positioning for.

The week that started with an Iran war escalation ended with a labor market shock. Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February — sharply missing expectations of +55,000 and reversing the prior month's +126,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.

Combined with oil breaking above $90 per barrel (a 35% weekly gain — the largest since oil futures trading began in 1983), the market is now pricing in stagflation risk: weak growth plus rising inflation.

The S&P 500 fell 1.33% to 6,740.02 on Friday after being down as much as 1.7% intraday. The Dow lost 453 points (down nearly 950 at its worst). The Nasdaq dropped 1.59%. For the week, the S&P shed 2%, the Dow fell 3%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.2%. All three major averages are now negative for the year.

The VIX surged 23% to 29.26 — its highest level since April 2025. At these levels, option premiums are significantly elevated across the board.

The following signals were identified from unusual options activity data, filtered for elevated volume-to-open-interest ratios and significant premium. This is observational analysis of publicly available flow data — not a recommendation to trade any of these names.

Friday's unusual flow showed 165 bullish signals versus 85 bearish, with bullish premium of approximately $21M vs $11.1M bearish.

MU (Micron) — Multiple Strikes, $6.5M total

The most active single name in Friday's flow. Bullish premium totaled approximately $4.6M across calls at the $370, $380, and $270 March/April strikes, plus $800 calls for December 2028 (LEAPS accumulation across 10 fills totaling approximately $1.4M). Bearish premium was $1.9M, concentrated in $730 puts for December 2028. With Micron scheduled to report earnings on March 18, both sides are building positions ahead of the print. Stock closed near $370.

ORCL (Oracle) — $140C and $270C, Jan 2027 expiry

Approximately $1.3M in total call premium across 9 separate fills, all ask-side and all bullish. The $140 calls ($929K across 5 fills) are deep in-the-money with the stock at $153. The $270 calls ($376K across 4 fills) represent an optimistic upside target. Oracle reports earnings next week — this is sustained pre-earnings accumulation.

CF Industries — $120C, September 2026 expiry

A single fill of $1.4M in call premium. With the stock at approximately $116, this is a slightly out-of-the-money call on a fertilizer company that benefits from elevated commodity and energy prices. Vol/OI was 1.9x.

LLY (Eli Lilly) — $340C and $440C, March 20 expiry

Approximately $1.6M in total call premium across 11 fills, all bullish. The $340 calls are deep in-the-money with LLY trading near $987. The $440 calls had Vol/OI reaching 2.2x, indicating some new positioning. Healthcare has been one of the few sectors showing relative strength this week.

BE (Bloom Energy) — Multiple Strikes, $1.1M total

All-bullish call accumulation across 7 fills. The standout was the $135 November calls at $537K with 6.4x Vol/OI — almost entirely new positioning. Bloom Energy operates in the hydrogen fuel cell space and benefits from the current energy supply disruption narrative.

PLTR (Palantir) — $45C Dec 2028 LEAPS

$615K in a single fill with 3.6x Vol/OI, indicating new positioning. An extremely deep in-the-money LEAPS call with the stock at $157. Total PLTR bullish flow was approximately $1M across 4 fills.

NVDA (Nvidia) — $165P March 20, $4M total two-way flow

NVDA saw $4M in total flow split almost evenly: $2M bullish vs $2M bearish. The bearish side was dominated by $165 put buying — approximately $1.5M across 10 fills at the March 20 expiry. With NVDA trading near $178, these puts are about 7% out-of-the-money with 13 days to expiry. Additional puts at $170, $180, and $300 strikes added to the hedging theme.

AMZN (Amazon) — $210–$220P June 2027

Approximately $963K in long-dated put premium across 3 fills. At $210–$220 strikes with AMZN near $213, these are near-the-money bearish positions with a 15-month horizon. Amazon also saw $461K in bullish calls at $205, making the net flow modestly bearish.

TSLA (Tesla) — Multiple Put Strikes, $1M+ bearish

Total TSLA flow was $1.34M with $1.04M bearish. Puts were spread across $680, $700, and $720 strikes for late 2026/2027 expirations — significantly out-of-the-money with the stock near $397. This suggests long-term hedging or bearish thesis positioning rather than a near-term directional bet.

SNDK (Sandisk) — $520P April 10, 7.3x Vol/OI

$296K in put premium on the best-performing S&P 500 name of 2026 (stock has doubled this year). Total SNDK bearish flow was $1.34M across multiple strikes. After a massive run, institutions appear to be buying downside protection.

ASML — Multiple Put Strikes, $621K total

All-bearish put flow on the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker. Strikes ranged from $960 to $1,460 across multiple expirations. The $1,460 March 27 put ($273K) stood out — near-term and close to the money with the stock at $1,292.

NOW (ServiceNow) — $172P Jan 2027

$527K across 3 fills, all bearish. With ServiceNow trading at $124 (post-split levels), these $172 puts are deep in-the-money.

Note: Unusual options activity can reflect hedging, spread trades, or institutional strategies that may not be directionally motivated. A single flow signal should not be interpreted as a definitive indicator of future price movement.

Friday's dark pool data showed significant institutional block trading. Notable prints:

HIMS (Hims & Hers Health): 13 separate prints totaling approximately $7.8M and 354,000 shares, all executed between 7:53 and 8:00 PM at approximately $22 per share. This level of concentrated after-hours dark pool activity on a mid-cap consumer health name is unusual and may warrant monitoring for upcoming news or corporate activity.

CRCL (Circle Internet): 4 prints totaling $2.3M at approximately $100.49 per share. This follows Tuesday's massive $6.3M options flow accumulation in Circle LEAPS that we highlighted in our previous issue. Continued institutional interest across both options and dark pool channels is notable.

Other significant blocks: META ($1.6M), CRWD ($858K), NVDA ($820K + $531K + $463K = $1.8M across 3 prints), MU ($800K + $435K), PLTR ($558K), TSLA ($513K).

The OI change data reveals where institutions have been steadily building positions over multiple days — a signal of conviction rather than one-day noise.

Hedging is building across index and credit ETFs:

SPY puts at $590 and $660 strikes have shown 3-5 consecutive days of open interest increases, with combined previous premium exceeding $79M. The $630 strike also saw a large single-day OI jump. QQQ $585 puts have been building for 5 straight days ($15M in prior premium). HYG (high-yield corporate bonds) puts at $75 have 3-7 days of OI increases across expirations, indicating institutional credit hedging.

China trade is two-sided: KWEB calls at $32–$35 (April/June) have 2-14 days of OI increases, while KWEB puts at $25 and $27 (April/June) show 4-6 days of building. Both bullish and bearish positioning is accumulating on the China internet ETF.

Semiconductor earnings positioning: AVGO (Broadcom) $297.50 puts have been building OI for 5-10 consecutive days ahead of earnings. NVDA $195 calls have 6 days of OI increases at the May 15 expiry and 4 days at March 13 — both near-term and longer-term bullish accumulation despite near-term bearish flow.

Notable single-name OI signals: SOFI $20 and $23 calls saw massive OI jumps (+145K and +135K contracts respectively) in a single day — this is enormous positioning. MSTR $147 calls have 9 consecutive days of OI increases. SMR (NuScale) $13 calls: 9 days of OI building.

This was the most volatile week for U.S. equities in nearly a year. The combination of a shooting war in the Middle East, $90 oil, a shockingly negative jobs report, and fears of a private credit crackdown (BlackRock capping fund withdrawals) created a perfect storm of risk-off sentiment.

The flow data tells a nuanced story: despite the fear, bullish signals outnumbered bearish 165 to 85 on Friday, with bullish premium nearly 2x bearish. But the character of the flow differs — bullish activity was concentrated in specific names (MU earnings plays, ORCL pre-earnings, CF energy beneficiaries), while bearish activity was broader and more hedging-oriented (mega-cap tech puts, index puts, credit puts).

Energy remains the only sector showing consistent strength — both in price action and flow. Technology, financials, and industrials are absorbing the heaviest defensive positioning.

Earnings to watch:

Economic Calendar:

Geopolitical: The U.S.-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. Trump's demand for unconditional surrender and Iran's continued Strait of Hormuz disruption suggest oil prices could remain elevated or rise further. Any diplomatic developments would be a major catalyst for risk assets.

AhamFlow analyzes publicly available options flow data to identify notable institutional positioning. The goal is to provide context on what large market participants appear to be doing — not to tell you what to do.

Daily flow alerts are shared on X/Twitter at @AhamFlow.

— The AhamFlow Team

DISCLAIMER: AhamFlow is published by Babu Ventures LLC (d/b/a FinPub) for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Options trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented is based on publicly available data and the author's analysis, which may contain errors or omissions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.